Uzalishaji wa kauchuk wa kimataifa bado uko katika kipindi cha ukuaji, na kiwango cha ukuaji wa mahitaji ya kauchuk katika soko la Kichina kinaendelea kupungua. Uhusiano wa ugavi na mahitaji katika soko la kauchuk wa asili unabaki kuwa na ziada ya ugavi.
Zaidi ya nusu ya mwaka 2018 umepita, huku soko la mpira wa asili likikabiliwa kwanza na kushuka kwa mara moja katika nusu ya kwanza ya mwaka na kisha kipindi kirefu cha kutokuwepo kwa mabadiliko makubwa. Tangu mwishoni mwa mwezi Juni, mkataba wa shanghai-gum 1901 umekuwa ukifanya kazi kwa zaidi ya miezi mitatu ndani ya upeo mdogo wa 11,545 yuan/tani hadi 12,875 yuan/tani. Kwa maoni yangu, nafasi za mkataba wa shanghai-gum 1901 kutoka kwenye kuimarika kwa muda wa mwezi mbili zijazo tayari zimekuwa finyu, na uwezekano wa kumaliza mkataba ndani ya upeo wa sasa wa mabadiliko ni mkubwa.
First, from the supply side.By September, China had imported 1.85 million tons of natural rubber, compared with 2.02 million tons in the same period last year.By September, China had imported 3.27 million tons of synthetic rubber, compared with 3.09 million tons in the same period last year, an increase of about 180,000 tons.In terms of total rubber imports, the import supply in the first three quarters of 2018 was slightly higher than that in 2017.From the perspective of explicit inventory, as of October 16, the warehouse quantity of futures in Shanghai futures exchange was 57,400 tons, 373,200 tons in the same period of last year, the rubber inventory of Qingdao bonded warehouse was 112,000 tons, and 198,900 tons in the same period of last year.According to the stock of rubber in the futures warehouse and bonded warehouse of Shanghai futures exchange, the current level of dominant inventory is still about 57,000 tons higher than last year.In particular, the high price of rubber warehouse receipt in Shanghai futures exchange has a more obvious impact on the futures price, which makes the price of shanghai-gum 1901 lower than the current performance of shanghai-gum 1801 contract.While the apparent inventory growth over the same period is slightly higher than the import growth over the same period, which indicates that the domestic natural rubber market is still in a state of surplus and slight aggravation.
Pili, angalia mahitaji ya chini ya mchakato. Kufikia mwisho wa Septemba, China ilikuwa imezalisha na kuuza magari milioni 20,494,913 na magari milioni 20,490,906, kuongezeka kwa asilimia 19% na 15% mwaka hadi mwaka, na viwango vya ukuaji vilikuwa vya chini kwa 1.9 asilimia na 2 asilimia mtawalia kutoka Januari hadi Agosti. Kiwango cha ukuaji wa uzalishaji wa magari mwaka hadi mwaka kimepungua kwa takriban 4 asilimia. Kufikia Septemba, China ilikuwa imefikia uzalishaji wa jumla wa matairi milioni 647, kuongezeka kwa asilimia 1.4 mwaka hadi mwaka, lakini chini kwa karibu asilimia 4.4. Wakati kiasi cha jumla cha ugavi wa mpira kinaendelea kuwa thabiti, kupungua kwa mahitaji ya chini ya mchakato bila shaka ni sababu nyingine muhimu ya kudorora kwa uhusiano wa ugavi na mahitaji.
In addition, the output of natural rubber in the main producing country is still increasing.According to the latest report data, from January to August 2018, the natural rubber output of Thailand, the main producing country, reached 2.783 million tons, with an increase of about 140,000 tons, and that of Indonesia, the main producing country, reached about 2.598 million tons, with an increase of about 390,000 tons.However, the output of natural rubber in Vietnam and India decreased in the first three quarters of 2018, among which Vietnam reduced output by about 130,000 tons and India reduced output by about 40,000 tons. However, it is still difficult to change the fact that the global natural rubber production has maintained a relatively large increase.Therefore, with no significant reduction in domestic production of the two major natural rubber main producers in Thailand and Indonesia, the global natural rubber oversupply will remain for a long time.